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Species Extinction Simulator
Factors Affecting
Species
Extinction

This program models a population of a hypothetical animal on a 2-D grid of habitat cells. Each cell tracks two life stages — resident adults that reproduce and dispersing juveniles that spread to neighbouring cells. You control life-history factors (birth rate, life span, dispersal rate) and two sources of mortality: habitat fragmentation (walls that block dispersal and degrade their neighbours) and random short-term events (local catastrophes).

The original project used it to ask which factors most push a species toward extinction — finding that reproductive rate mattered more than starting population size, life span barely mattered, and that dispersal could help or hurt depending on the kind of stress.

Run the Simulator

Pick a scenario, then press Go in the Display window. Cells shade from white (full) to black (empty); blue and green cells are walls.

Science fair project & model by Andrew Cantino (2000). Port of the RealBASIC source by Claude.